NC Politics Up for Grabs. Is It A Red Or Purple State?

Republicans think North Carolina is a solidly red state that occasionally elects Democrats, but Democrats think NC is a decidedly purple state, for whom solid Republican rule 2012-2016 was an aberration. The state is growing rapidly. Both parties increase their vote totals after each national election. North Carolina's population has grown one percent a year, from... Continue Reading →

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What Is A ‘Wave Election’?

Carter Wrenn, a longtime Republican political strategist in North Carolina, expertly defined a "wave election" in this blog post: "One party's turnout plummets...Swing voters overwhelmingly vote for one party over another..."

How Seriously To Take US Political Divisions?

I've been surprised that some of my most vociferous "conservative" sparring partners online now admit that they reluctantly voted for Donald Trump or didn't vote for him at all in 2016. Rather, they voted against Hillary Clinton, desperate to "turn the page" from the too long-running Clinton soap-opera. Some would have voted for Joe Biden... Continue Reading →

NC Republicans Blatantly Discriminated, But Gerrymandered Maps Remain for 2018

Two federal court decisions significantly change NC politics. A federal appeals court in 2016 struck down North Carolina Republicans' voter-id law, charging that it "targeted African Americans with almost surgical precision." If the court had ruled the law constitutional, Republican Pat McCrory would probably have remained governor. He lost by 5,000 votes to Democrat Roy Cooper.... Continue Reading →

Democrats Target 50+ House Seats

Democrats need a 50-seat majority in the US House of Representatives to be fully in charge. They only need to flip 23 seats to win the House, but victory by a tiny margin will not likely lead to secure or confident leadership. A "blue wave" means they'd have to win 25 toss-ups and 25 leans-Republican... Continue Reading →

Dan McCready, in NC 9: Congressional Candidate to Watch

Dan McCready, a former Marine, and founder of a solar energy company in Charlotte, NC is running for Congress in the historically conservative ninth congressional district as a Democrat. Republicans had a knock-down, drag-out primary, and Tea Party preacher Mark Harris won the GOP nomination, beating incumbent Republican Robert Pettinger. The race has shifted from... Continue Reading →

Patterns of Political History: Every Action Creates Reaction

Politics is like physics, in that waves or movements spark equal and opposite counter-movements. Or as the philosopher Hagel observed of history, ideas or thesis spark antithesis and eventually synthesis. Revolutions create counter-revolutions and, in democratic societies, evolution. 1. The Obama "Revolution" of 2008-10 created the Tea Party and Trump Counter-revolutions of 2010-16. While they... Continue Reading →

7 Logical Fallacies in Online Debates

Logical fallacies -- common errors in reasoning such as straw-man arguments, ad hominem attacks, post hoc (false causation), false choices between extremes, whataboutism -- are rampant in political debates on social media. Two more logical fallacies I've noticed: Gish Gallop -- "(also known as proof by verbosity) is the fallacious debate tactic of drowning your opponent in a flood of individually-weak... Continue Reading →

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