Patterns of Political History: Every Action Creates Reaction

Politics is like physics, in that waves or movements spark equal and opposite counter-movements. Or as the philosopher Hagel observed of history, ideas or thesis spark antithesis and eventually synthesis.

Revolutions create counter-revolutions and, in democratic societies, evolution.

1. The Obama “Revolution” of 2008-10 created the Tea Party and Trump Counter-revolutions of 2010-16.

2. In 2017, we saw a reaction against the Tea Party and Trump, and the emergence of feminist “me too” and “Black Lives Matter” movements.

3. In 2018, reaction against Trump will probably result in Dems taking back the US House and possibly the Senate. If they do, they will likely initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump.

4. Will impeachment result in a backlash against the Dems like the Clinton impeachment did against Republicans? Clinton maintained his political popularity despite impeachment. Trump has never been a popular president, never winning majority approval. The popularity of impeachment depends on how compelling a legal argument can be made against Trump.

Will Republicans split over Trump, immigration, free/fair trade, taxes/spending/deficits and other issues?

There may be a hunger among the public for leaders who apply principles consistently without regard to political partisanship.

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