Republican Will Probably Split Before Democrats Win Presidency Again

A lot of Democrats and journalists are still criticizing Hillary Clinton as a bad candidate, and blaming her for the defeat in 2016. See the book, “Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign.” But politics is a team sport, and no Democrat would be a successful president without bringing with them a Democratic Congress, at the very least a Democratic Senate majority. Clinton’s (and Sanders’) agenda was as progressive if not more so than Obama’s, and yet a Republican Congress would have blocked them at every turn. Clinton’s (or Sanders’) presidency was doomed to create more frustration than accomplishment as long as hyper-partisan Republicans controlled the House of Representatives.

We now see Republicans are only unified in opposition and hatred of Hillary, Obama and “libruls,” and are struggling to pass any positive agenda. Republican attempts to govern will have to fail before a Democrat can win the White House again.

Republican divisions must play out and split the party before a Democrat can win the presidency and govern effectively again. Meanwhile, Democrats need to strengthen their representation in Congress.

Democrats in 2016 lost winnable Senate races in Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania, which would have given them a majority in the Senate. UK Guardian:

In Wisconsin, Senate candidate Russ Feingold failed to unseat Republican Ron Johnson, 52% to 45%, after rural regions came out to vote strongly for Trump and other Republicans…

Former Indiana senator Evan Bayh failed to make a comeback against the Republican incumbent, Todd Young, after a race defined by Bayh’s lobbying work in Washington while he was out of office…

In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey survived a strong challenge from Democrat Kate McGinty in what became the most expensive Senate race in American history…He won the race shortly after 1am local time, with a tentative victory of 49% to 47%.

Democrats have no chance of winning back the Senate in 2018, but do have a chance of winning back the House in 2018 and the Senate in 2020. In 2018, Republicans will be defending just eight Senate seats, and Democrats will be defending 23 seats, plus two more independents who caucus with Dems.

Only two Senate Republicans are currently considered vulnerable in 2018: Dean Heller of Nevada and Jeff Flake of Arizona. Flake, a proponent of a moderate immigration reform, strikes me as smooth and unflappable, an unlikely loser. But his position on immigration and his criticisms of Donald Trump have brought him a primary challenge from a Tea Party-backed physician, Kelli Ward.

Odds are very much against the Democrats winning all their senate seats plus three or four Republican seats to take control of the Senate.


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