The 2016 election was decided by five counties in two states, Florida and Michigan, Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio says. Trump under-performed in Texas, Arizona, and Georgia, but it made no difference.
If Trump lost Macomb County in Michigan, a traditionally Democratic suburb of Detroit which famously went for Reagan, and these four counties in Florida — Lee County (Fort Myers), Pasco (Dade City), Polk (Bartow), Pinellas (Clearwater) and Volusia (Daytona Beach) — he would have lost those states and lost the election. He won Macomb by 50,000 votes, and those four counties in Florida provided a 1.2 percent margin of victory in the state.
And it was millenials — those between 18 and 29 — in key states who Clinton lost in comparison to Obama. Washington Post:
“While Clinton’s national margin of victory among young people was only four points worse than Obama’s 60-to-37 edge, Michigan’s exit poll shows her margin among young people there was five points worse (+28 for Obama vs. +23 for Clinton). In Florida, it was 16 points worse (+34 vs. +18). In Pennsylvania, it was 17 points worse (+28 vs. +9). And in Wisconsin, it was 20 points worse (+23 vs. +3).”
Five states and about 215 counties across the nation voted for Obama, then in 2016 flipped to Trump.
- Ohioans, tired of status quo, switch to Trump. Details.
- Florida: How Trump won it.
- Michigan voters say Trump could see their problems right off the bat.Macomb County, Mich twice voted for Barack Obama but backed Donald J. Trump. Click.
- PA: How Erie turned red: Economy sank, and Trump rose. Click. “Had Mrs Clinton roused Mr Obama’s coalition of non-whites, the young and well-educated she would have won. In Philadelphia, where she held a pre-election rally on November 7th, at which her husband Bill, Mr and Mrs Obama and Bruce Springsteen all performed, she won 28,000 fewer votes than Mr Obama in 2012. That was close to her margin of defeat in Pennsylvania, a state where she had led in 107 of the 125 most recent polls and which last went red in 1988.” — The Economist.
- Wisconsin: “Kenosha County is the kind of place Democrats didn’t used to have to worry about. The last time it went for a Republican for president was 1972, Richard Nixon. And now, in 2016, Donald Trump – he won Kenosha County by 255 votes.” (NPR). Wisconsin had the lowest turnout in 16 years and gave Trump a 27,257 vote victory. Black neighborhoods, especially, had low voter turnout. They felt a connection to Obama but their lives did not improve much under his administration, “We’re worse off than before,” and they did not have hope that Hillary would improve their lives. http://nyti.ms/2feAFhh
As for the claims of racism that have dogged Mr. Trump, Mr. Babar wasn’t so worried. “It’s better than smiling to my face but going behind closed doors and voting against our kids,” he said.
Tarvus Hawthorne, 45, a program coordinator at a local nonprofit, agreed.
“He was real, unlike a lot of liberal Democrats who are just as racist” but keep it hidden, he said, his jaw slathered with shaving cream. “You can reason with them all day long, but they think they know it all. They want to have control. That they know what’s best for ‘those people.’”
Still, he voted for Mrs. Clinton, as did many others here.
- Map of counties that switched from 2012 to 2016: A few counties — in GA, TX, Utah and a handful of other states — actually switched from Romney in 2012 to Clinton in 2016. But 215 counties switched from Obama to Trump.