Britney Spears As Political Analyst

Remember that Britney Spears’ song? Increasingly it seems to reflect the obsession of media, pollsters and pundits with Donald Trump as the GOP leader BEFORE A SINGLE VOTE HAS BEEN CAST.

“Oops I did it again
I played with your heart
got lost in the game…
Oh baby, baby
Oops!…You think I’m in love
That I’m sent from above
I’m not that innocent”
“I think I did it again
I made you believe we’re more than just friends
Oh baby
It might seem like a crush
But it doesn’t mean that I’m serious
‘Cause to lose all my senses
That is just so typically me
Oh baby, baby”
For six months we have been hearing that Republicans have fallen in love with Donald Trump, according to polls. But those polls may reflect nothing but name recognition and off-of-the-top-of-the-head flip answers, not some deep-seated passion or (in my view) flaw in the Republican character.
There has been an attempt by the political press to FORCE Republican primary voters to make a decision about their leader before they were ready to do so and long before the calendar indicates that they need to make a decision: 70 percent of primary and caucus voters make their decisions about who to vote for in the last couple of weeks before a primary or caucus takes place. The public is not that into politics. The reams of copy, the hours of cable news verbiage, the constant worry about bigotry in America because a significant plurality of Republicans supposedly support Donald Trump could just be meaningless blather.
Trump may be something of a media creation. I understand how it happened. Journalists want some objective measure of support to determine who to give the most attention to, so they look to polls to sort out the crowded field. But polls do not measure precisely how committed voters are to a candidate, or even how deep-seated voters’ positions on issues are. An overwhelming majority of Republican voters might, shortly after the San Bernardino attacks, say they agree with Trump that Muslims should be banned from America, but they might take a far more considered opinion months later, especially if they have a nominee who rejects such bigoted appeals.
Once the voting begins in earnest, Trump could fade faster than an evening sunset. Here’s hoping.
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