Because Republicans are so divided in 2016, I suspect Hillary Clinton will win the November election handily. But she may serve just one term, as she will be 72 or 73 in 2020.
If Republicans in four years could grow up, become adults, start tackling problems with reason instead of holding onto a rapidly vanishing past of white male majority power, they could perhaps take back the White House.
By 2020, if the business cycle is in a down swing, the economy could drag down the Democrats. It’s rare that one party holds the White House for more than 12 years.
The GOP’s current problem is that it has no consensus agenda other than fearful reactionary proposals to roll back Obama’s policies on health care, Cuba, Iran, immigration, global warming, energy independence, and nominees to the Supreme Court. In 2016, they seem to offer mostly bigotry, hatred, war, and economic policies that favor the one percent.
The US political party system has had six phases, each sparked by a major realignment. Within the next eight years, I think we’ll see another realignment.
I envision a Republican Party that breaks the Dems’ advantage in the gender gap, and breaks the Dems’ lock on African American, homosexual and Hispanic votes, by ending their hostility to those groups. This is possible if women, middle-income and upper-income minorities find reasons to vote Republican.
I don’t think that will happen until Republicans lose again in 2016, their older segregationist, nativist, male chauvinist (patriarchal), and Christian fundamentalist wings die off, immigration reform passes, and they realize they can’t win without minority votes.